A bet has value when you rate its chance higher than the price implies. Enter the odds you can get and your own win probability.
Your bet
Remove the bookmaker margin No-vig
Enter the prices of the other outcomes in the same market to see the bookmaker's margin and the market's own fair probability for your pick.
Size it with Kelly Stake
How the flag is decided
The price implies a win probability of 1 / decimal odds. Your edge is your probability minus that, in percentage points; expected value is what you make per 1 staked on average: EV = p × d − 1
- Green — value: edge at or above your minimum.
- Amber — marginal: positive edge but below the minimum. Small edges are easily inside the error of your own estimate; disciplined bettors skip these rather than betting them small.
- Red — no value: the price implies at least your probability.
Removing the margin
Implied probabilities across a whole market add up to more than 100% — the excess is the bookmaker's margin (overround). Dividing each by the total gives the market's fair, vig-free view (proportional method). If your price still shows positive EV against that, you are beating the market's own consensus, not just your own model.
The verdict always measures against the price you can actually bet, margin included.